(answer supplied by Charles Reuben,MA,Dallas)

The "Year 2000 Problem" has several easy to understand causes which lead to problems which are very complex and require expertise to fix. Computer systems have only been in use for the last 50 Years. The actual Year 2000 itself has never happened before and there were no Computers in the Year 1000. Year 2000 is a Leap Year coupled with hardware and software defects all combine to create a giant set of problems that Businesses have never encountered before. Experts have warned of the problem for years. Many large problems can still be fixed but...... TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE! There are 3 Years to 2000 but in reality, large and small users MUST have their systems in place and ready no later than Early 1999 to insure they will work!!

To simplify the problem for you,,,, think of your check book and the imprinted date. It will usually be in the form __________,19__ . You usually fill in ONLY the last two digits for the year. In much the same way, Computer Programmers over the years wrote programs that only used the last two digits of the Year to calculate and record dates.

If you think about it, every year for the first few checks you write, you have probably written the wrong Year field. Only far sighted people sit down with their check books on January 1st of each year and write the last two digits of the new year on maybe 10-20 checks. This is a great trick but most people are creatures of habit.

In the Early Days of Computer History (before 1990) almost all software programs (except financially important ones) displayed only the last two digits for the year. Because Computer storage and active processing power was limited, programs were written to utilize those 2 YYs in the form MM/DD/YY (Month/Date/Year). Over the years, some of these programs began to fail as the calculations did not produce the correct solutions. WHY??

CONSIDER:

If you subtract the year 96 from the year 97 you get 1 year. So do the Computers.

If you subtract the year 96 from the year 99 you get 3 years. So do the Computers.

If YOU subtract the year 96 from the YEAR 2000 * YOU* get 4 years. The Computers get something else. That something else....is THE YEAR 2000 PROBLEM. Some Computers get negative 96!! Some Computers send you a message,"Unable to process. Illegal function. Do not collect $200." Some Computers STOP. Others seem to work but return results that then cause all your other data to get very SICK INDEED!!

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(answer by: Charles Reuben,MA,DALLAS)

In the past 50 years, Computers have become part of the BUSINESS and GOVERNMENTAL STRUCTURES. Modern large "Enterprises" cannot function today without the automated processes which replace the manual computing, tabulating and recording work.

That said, try to name.....ANY BUSINESS OR GOVERNMENT PROCESS that is somehow NOT connected to a "DATE" or "TIME". Thus, if "Computers" are part of our lives and the Date and Time functions are not working properly there will be some impact on our lives. We offer a brief list of examples:

1. Expiration dates on Food, Drugs, Credit Cards, Drivers Licenses,Check Cashing Cards,and Debit Cards.
   
2. Airline Flight Schedules
   
3. Commercial Property Lease Terms and Agreements
   
4. Payroll and Salary Schedules.
   
5. Parole Schedules for Released Prisoners
   
6. All Buildings but especially Health Care and Assisted Living Facilities' Temperature Controls
   
7. Short Term and Long Term Business Loans
   
8. Mortgages and Home Improvement loans
   
9. Freight Companies Timed Routing Schedules for Food and Pharmaceuticals
   
10. School Bus Schedules and Routes
    
11. Traffic Light Control Systems
    
12. Calendars
    
13. Project and Contact Managers for Builders,Architects,Sales and Marketing,P.R.people
    
14. Fund Drive Schedules for Non Profits
    
15. Daylight Savings Time Schedules
    
16. And...the MOST CRITICAL OF ALL, The NFL ANNUAL SCHEDULE !!!
    

We at Dallas Year 2000 Prep, can give you concrete examples of current or potential failures if the YEAR 2000 Problems are NOT addressed.

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(answer :Charles Reuben,MA,Dallas)

There have been studies from reliable sources that discuss many of the implications of the Year 2000. Please use our "links" page. Even the most serious works take care to be rather careful. Any Business or Government Person must ask her/himself what might happen if ..'MY Computers FAIL". Since this set of circumstances has never existed before there is no "Knowledge or Experience Base" to work with. In this Problem, there lies and Imbedded Solution. Fix the Problems and the Solutions will emerge. It becomes essential then, for each "Enterprise" to "get its own house in order" first. Next, businesses need to insist that Vendors and Customers do likewise.Then all may worry about the rest of the world.
To summarize some of the current conservative thinking:

1. Large Businesses: (The Global 2000) It is expected that one percent of these Companies will fail.
   
2. Medium Sized Business (1,000 to 10,000 employees) Some estimate a 5-7% failure rate. Many of these Companies are still unaware of the Year 2000 Problems. Larger companies especially those that are Public Corporations, have both Accountants and Legal Advisors who have tried to prepare them In addition, large companies have been the subject of intensive efforts on the part of the Computer Industry Vendors because they are the "biggest customers". If there is to be any serious impact to the public, it will come from smaller companies who make up the business "Infrastructure". Since it is IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT where the failures will be, It becomes equally impossible to make reliable predictions. One must think of the problem in the terms of the "epidemiologists". YOU KNOW THE FLU HITS EVERY WINTER, BUT...YOU DO NOT KNOW EXACTLY WHO WILL GET IT AND OR WHERE IT WILL DO THE MOST HARM.
   
3. Small Businesses(less than 1,000 employees): Reliable statistics from economists both in Government and out indicate that 50% of all Small Businesses fail in the first five years of existence. Even if the Year 2000 were to impact 10% of the 38 million businesses of less than 100 employees the Census Department measures; it may or may not have any significant economic effect.
   

   Most of the experts now predict that it is the "mid Range" sized Companies that will create a measurable Economic or Logistic effect.

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(Answer supplied by Charles Reuben,Dallas).

There are very few people who after studying the Year 2000 Information and articles on our "links" page, who are not convinced there is a serious problem to be addressed. Informing others becomes almost a given.

When people first hear of this Y 2 K problem they can not believe there can be a "big" problem. Many who do not read the available studies dismiss Y2K as a "computer glitch thing". They fail to understand several very important ways in which Large Companies do business. At the heart of the misunderstanding lies two prime ingredients: Corporate Secrecy Policies and Corporate Economic Policies. When anyone sells product to a large "Enterprise", they invariably will sign a "non-disclosure" agreement in which the vendor will agree not to discuss the internal workings of a Company to anyone outside the either company. There is great 'Competitive Advantage" to be gained were any short comings in operations "leaked" to outsiders. If Brand X were unable to ship their Super Duper Deluxe Widget, be assured Brand Y would let all potential buyers know that they will have an adequate supply of the New Improved Widgie ready when X fails to ship. Business is almost WAR.

In addition,Large Long Term Corporation Budgets have not been prepared to allow for the expenses incurred for the Year 2000 work. Companies have "Priorities". When both the SEC and the Accounting Industries demanded that many companies address the Y 2 K Issues, Priorities changed but Y 2 K is a COST and comes from the "bottom line" in all Companies. It must be "Expensed". ALL Departments of Large Companies engage in "Turf Wars" for Budget Money. For Years, the Computer Professionals warnings about Year 2000 were listened to but nothing was done. Now, the "money has to be found" and in some sad cases it can't be found.

Many Large well run companies and government departments HAVE addressed the Y 2 K issues and some have even "finished". BUT...MOST of the repair work completed or in process in Large Companies with respect to Year 2000 can NOT be revealed to the Trade or the General Public. Thus, it is to the tribute of Companies such as: GENERAL TELEPHONE, TANDY Corp,MCI,MOBIL, AND I.B.M. that they do in fact address their problems IN PUBLIC. From those few glimpses of 'Real World Cases", enough of the Year 2000 Problem has been "deduced" by such respected Institutions as J.P. Morgan, the United States G.S.A.,Prudential Insurance and both GTE and IBM who offer their experiences to the growing knowledge and experience base. Now, as Year 2000 draws near and TIME is truly of the Essence, the Media and respected commentators have begun to set about informing the General Public.

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(Answer supplied: Charles Reuben,MA,DALLAS)

Since the Problem is easy to understand, you need to find out where it is and fix it. All Computer Professionals understand "top down design". You develop a Methodology and then Implement it. IT IS CRITICAL TO ENLIST ALL CORPORATE FINAL DECISION MAKERS INCLUDING "THE BOSS OF ALL BOSSES".

There have been many "Game Plans" suggested. They all seem to boil down to the following steps. YOU must adapt them to YOUR "Environment".

STEPS TO RECOVERY FROM 2 YY ADDICTION:

1. TAKE AN INVENTORY. You need to know exactly every last piece of hardware and software. Everything is deemed "defective" until cleaned or approved. A list of all warranties and licenses should be assembled. Each shop must consider exactly how to do this. There are Out Source Vendors with Knowledge and Tools. You may even want to consider using TWO. For many well run smaller shops, this stage may be very straight forward.
   
2. ANALYSIS OF THE RESULTS OF ALL INVENTORY. Vendors must be held responsible (and LIABLE) for their products. Many Vendors know where the problems are and can help. In this step, the Source Code is critical. At the time this inventory is completed, some estimates as to the "shape we are in' can be made.This is the Stage when you will have to make the Managerial Judgement Calls as to whether or NOT you CAN MAKE IT!!
   

   IF you can NOT....you must then prioritized down "Mission Critical Functions". THE BOTTOM LINE QUESTION HERE IS SIMPLE......"WHAT FUNCTION..... WILL KILL OUR COMPANY.... IF IT CAN NOT WORK BY 1/1/2000???" .....THAT....is the "LIFE OR DEATH" decision to make ...NOTHING ELSE. IF the Company is DEAD,,,nothing else will really matter,RIGHT????
   

3. PREPARE A PROJECT MANAGEMENT TEAM FOR THE SOLUTIONS FROM STEP TWO. NOTE: 1/1/2000 IS A DEADLINE THAT WILL BE MET OR YOU WILL FAIL!! That implies that the project must have a fully prioritized set of goals and TIME FRAMES for meeting those goals. DALLAS 2000 suggests: 1/1/1999 is the first Major Deadline. All "SOLUTIONS" must be in place for final TESTING AND FIELDING by then.
   

   It should be obvious to anyone reading this that the following lie in mutually dependent loops.

4. DO THE XXXXXXING WORK!!!
   
5. TEST
   
6. FIELD
   
7. FINAL ROLL OUT OF YEAR 2000 "COMPLIANT" COMPUTER SYSTEMS
   
8. REPORT RESULTS TO DALLAS YEAR 2000. Note: this is a critical step. This organization will only allow Year 2000 Compliant Companies and Computer Professionals to witness the Year 2000 Super Bowl. Let us assure you that for all others there will be no Year 2000 Super Bowl. SEE FAQ BELOW!!
   

9. WHAT ABOUT ALL OUR BRAND NEW PERSONAL COMPUTERS???

   (Answer: Charles Reuben, MA,Dallas)

   IBM,Compaq,Hewlett-Packard and others have stated that beginning late in 1996, all of their Personal Computers will be "Year 2000 Compliant" with respect to the BIOS and any other system clocks. Apple Computer's MACINTOSH Computers and Operating Systems were designed to avoid the Century date change problem.
   

   NEVERTHELESS, all Computers which will be using older versions of Software OR...DATA must be checked to insure that they will function in 2000. Many older programs do not even recognize the Leap Year Day in 2000. Others have all stored date fields in the form MM/DD/YY (the 2 YY form). At the least that date must be converted to the MM/DD/YYYY (4 YYYY form) or made into that form by a Utility Software program or procedure.
   

   It is IMPERATIVE to understand that the Desk Top Personal Computer in a large Corporation with data in a NON Y2K "compliant" form,,,CAN POLLUTE A PROGRAM IN A MAIN FRAME COMPUTER OR A SERVER of any size.. If safeguards are not taken on the Main Frame or Server end, then it should be clear that those safeguards must be taken at the Client Level. This is NOT A TRIVIAL TASK!!! I have stated openly that the "nightmare of the Computer Professionals has come true, ..."the Users got free" ". It was a dramatic way of saying that all the work to clean up a major problem can be "screwed up" by the Fat Clients and the legacy Software and Data.
   

   Thus, the same Methodologies that apply to the Big Iron must be scaled down to the DESKTOP!!!
   

   ALL COMPUTERS ARE SUSPECT UNTIL INVESTIGATED AND CLEARED !!! That is the mentality that must be put in place. Can it be done??? Certainly. The very same thinking that is used to build a "debugging" program can be adapted to seek out instances of DATES and at the least...identify the suspects.
   

10. WILL MY OLD P.C. STILL WORK IN 2000? I LOVE IT SO !!!

    
    

    (Answer from: Charles Reuben,MA,Dallas)
    

    Older machines have a built in problem in the BIOS and the older Software BUT...they can be saved. Older dogs still make great hunters and pets so there is NO reason to run to the Super Store if you do a bit of work.
    

    For want of a better term, these machines both large and small are called the "Cinderella" types. Upgrading the BIOS or using available Software BIOS Fixes (see the Links Pages) can save your baby...... BUT...you will have to pay attention to every one of your PC Soft Ware Programs. Most display dates only in the Dreaded 2 YY form. If you are lucky, you will be able to expand the date field to 4 YYYY and all will be well. Software Upgrades are now being released. If your machine can use them, it might be well to start now. This will probably work only for the p486/dx66 to Pentium machines. I,too, love my 286 but it has gone to the PC old age home in the garage.

    A WORD TO THE SMALL USER. Most Big Companies are now demanding "Year 2000 Compliance Statements" from Vendors. WHY SHOULDN'T YOU. Get the Super Store Clerk to write on your Upgrade Sales slip..."This product is Year 2000 Compliant". If they will NOT...go else where. For one thing, they do not know of the Biggest Problem in Business and for another, YOU are paying for a product that should Work for Years. Planned obsolesence is PASSE' in Cars.
    

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11. WILL THERE BE A SUPER BOWL IN THE YEAR 2000????

    
    

    (Answer: Charles Reuben)
    

    The members of DALLAS YEAR 2000 PREP have decided there will be NO Super Bowl 2000 for ANYONE until ALL the Computers in the World are Year 2000 Compliant. HOWEVER, a special waver will be granted to any Company which reports to the Dallas Year 2000 Group that they have worked hard and every last Computer and Program they have is Compliant. There was some discussion as to whether it would be sufficient and necessary that those Companies also insure that their Vendors and Customers were also compliant. This will be taken up on a case by case basis.
    

    THEREFORE, it would be better to assume that there will be NO Super Bowl 2000 for YOU unless ALL Computers are Year 2000 Compliant. This is one Y 2 K "EFFECT" not noted in any other study.
    

    We trust that now YOU will understand HOW VERY SERIOUS Y2K IS !!!
    
    

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STILL HAVE A QUESTION??? ASK THE PROS AT DALLAS D.A.M.A. Y 2 K

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YEAR 2000 is COMING!!! Are YOUR Computers READY????