Are any of these records untouchable?



Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's scoring record of 38,387 points:

It could easily be a couple of decades before this one is challenged. The only
players in the league with any reasonable shot at it are all in their first few
seasons:
Carmelo Anthony, Gilbert Arenas, LeBron James, Amare Stoudemire, and Dwyane Wade.
Kobe Bryant could do it if he kept up his current pace for 8-9 years, but it's not
very likely. He's just finished his 11th season, and is only 28. If he plays 8 years
and doesn't miss any games (instead of the average of 8 per year he's missed as a
starter), he'd have to average over 29 points per game. Even though he's young, he
probably won't get that many points as a 34 or 35 year old. And it's likely the
Lakers will get one player sometime in the next 8 years who can also score,
lowering Kobe's average.
Here's what it takes to score 38388 points, assuming the player never misses
any games in his career:
15 Seasons = 1230 Games = 31.21 Avg.
16 Seasons = 1312 Games = 29.26 Avg.
17 Seasons = 1394 Games = 27.54 Avg.
18 Seasons = 1476 Games = 26.01 Avg.
19 Seasons = 1558 Games = 24.64 Avg.
20 Seasons = 1640 Games = 23.41 Avg.
Of the 10 players with career scoring averages in at least 10 seasons that are higher
than Abdul-Jabbar, the average number of 82-game seasons completed is 12.1. So the
average career of big scorers isn't long enough, and the circumstances that led
Abdul-Jabbar to keep playing 20 years (accountants stealing his money) probably won't
happen again. And there aren't too many players like Malone who play their career
virtually injury-free. Here are the players with career scoring averages over
24 points (400 game minimum, except LeBron and Carmelo):
Rank Name                  Avg.    Seasons  82-Game Seasons
1.   Michael Jordan        30.12     15     13.1
2.   Wilt Chamberlain      30.07     14     12.7
3.   Allen Iverson         27.73     12     10.1
4.   Elgin Baylor          27.36     14     10.3
5.   LeBron James          27.34      5      4.8
6.   Jerry West            27.03     14     11.4
7.   Bob Pettit            26.36     11      9.7
8.   George Gervin         26.18     10      9.6
9.   Oscar Robertson       25.68     14     12.7
10.  Shaquille O'Neal      25.23     16     12.7
11.  Karl Malone           25.02     19     18.0
12.  Kobe Bryant           24.96     12     10.6
13.  Dominique Wilkins     24.83     15     13.1
14.  Kareem Abdul-Jabbar   24.61     20     19.0
15.  Larry Bird            24.29     13     10.9
16.  Adrian Dantley        24.27     15     11.6
17.  Pete Maravich         24.24     10      8.0
18.  Carmelo Anthony       24.44      5      4.6
19.  Dwyane Wade           23.92      5      3.8
20.  Vince Carter          23.80     10      8.5
There are only 5 players in history who've played the equivalent of 16 seasons,
including Malone and Stockton, and nobody's had a high enough average. The only
two players with a career average high enough to do it in 16 years (Jordan and
Chamberlain) both played around 13 seasons worth of games. Since Karl Malone
didn't do it, it will be at least 8 years before anyone can come close to it.



Wilt Chamberlain's rebounding record of 23,924:

As amazing as John Stockton's assist record is, Wilt's rebounding record will be
much harder to break. I don't think anyone will ever get within 5000 rebounds of
him. Nobody is going to average 22.9 rebounds per game ever again. Robert Parish
has played more games (1611) than any other player. He would've had to average
14.9 rebounds per game, well above his 9.1 career average. Dennis Rodman had several
years in his career higher than 14.9, but his career average is 13.1, which is the
highest career average of any player in the last 20 years. For him to get Wilt's
record, he would've had to play over twice as many games as he played in his career.
The highest current career averages are 11.8 by Tim Duncan, 11.5 by Shaquille O'Neal,
11.2 by Kevin Garnett, and 10.4 by Dikembe Mutombo. At that rate, it would take 1945
games, almost 24 82-game seasons. Only 5 players in history have averages over 14.0
per game, and none played any of their careers in the last 25 seasons, and the
average number of career games of those players is 919, or 11.2 82-game seasons.
Only 16 other players have half the number of rebounds Wilt has. Nobody will EVER
challenge this one. It's kind of like Jim Brown's per carry rushing record in the
NFL. He would be a super-star in the NFL today, but he wouldn't average over 5 yards
per carry because he and everybody else that comes into the league now and in the
future wouldn't have the luxury of playing against a lot of fatter, slower guys
like he did. It's the same for Wilt:
He was the tallest player in the league most of his career, the average size of
all the other players was a lot shorter than today, and he was much more agile
than almost every other player over 6'6" in the league, which wouldn't be true
today. Nobody will ever average 50.4 points, or 27.2 rebounds in one season, or
lead the league in rebounding and assists in the same season ever again. Here's
what it would take to do it:
15 Seasons = 1230 Games = 19.45 Avg.
16 Seasons = 1312 Games = 18.24 Avg.
17 Seasons = 1394 Games = 17.16 Avg.
18 Seasons = 1476 Games = 16.21 Avg.
19 Seasons = 1558 Games = 15.36 Avg.
20 Seasons = 1640 Games = 14.59 Avg.



John Stockton's assist record of 15,806:

I don't think this will ever be broken, either, but it's a little more likely than
Wilt's record. Only 6 players in the history of the NBA have over HALF the number of
assists as Stockton. But 9 of the 10 highest per game assist averages are by players
who've played in the last 20 years, and none of the top 10 rebounding averages are
by players who've played in the last 20 years, so players do get a lot more assists
per game than they did 30-40 years ago, but don't get anywhere near the number of
rebounds per game as 30-40 years ago. John Stockton has half again more assists than
Mark Jackson, who's number two in assists. Magic Johnson is the only player with a
higher average than Stockton, but obviously lost the opportunity to get a few
thousand more due to his HIV infection. Mark Jackson is the only other player to
get 10,000 assists, but I don't think anyone will even get 12,000 any time soon,
let alone challenge Stockton's record.



John Stockton's steals record of 3,128:

He's got a pretty big lead in this category, too, but steals and blocked shots have
only been counted since 1973-74, so there's plenty of room in those two categories
for other players with great longevity like Stockton and Abdul-Jabbar to break them.
But again, it should be a while before this one falls.



Hakeem Olajuwon's blocked shot record of 3,830:

This record should also last quite a while. I don't see anybody in the top 50
right now with much chance to beat it. If Dikembe Mutombo had graduated from
college at 21 years old instead of 25, he would've had a shot. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
would probably have 4,000 blocks if they were counted during his first 4 years.
Referee Earl Strom once said that Wilt Chamberlain and Bill Russell both probably
averaged about 8 blocks per game in their prime. People talk about Bill Russell's
shot blocking ability, but most people think Wilt blocked more shots. It's said that
he blocked 25 shots in a game against the Celtics once, and that the 35-year-old
Wilt blocked 20 shots in two consecutive games in the 1972 playoffs against Kareem
Abdul-Jabbar's Bucks, 11 of them against Kareem! Chamberlain and Russell could
easily have 6,000 blocks in their careers.